OBJECTIVES: In clinical practice it is known that subjects vary in their response to acupuncture, but there is little data on what predicts the outcome. The aim of this study was to identify such predictors. METHOD: A secondary analysis was performed on data from 100 participants in a trial of laser and sham laser acupuncture for chronic non-specific low back pain. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify which baseline characteristics predicted pain change in the immediate, short and intermediate term. An analysis of covariance was performed based on these results to re-examine the primary result of the trial. RESULTS: Strong predictors of poor response were receipt of disability support pension, headache, the regular use of analgesics or previous failed back surgery. Higher pain scores or exacerbation of pain at baseline predicted a greater proportionate pain relief after the intervention. Adjusted analysis suggested a clinically important effect of laser compared to sham (p < 0.05), at short term follow-up only. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study suggest which characteristics of patients with chronic low back pain are more likely to respond to laser acupuncture treatment, but require replication in other studies. The findings may not apply in other acupuncture interventions and treatment of different conditions. They may also be used to set selection criteria for future studies, and to aid interpreting the effect of baseline imbalances on trial results.

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